Earnings Drift Grades: stocks graded on post-earnings drift

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: Management reaffirmed full year 2026 earnings guidance of $1.89 to $1.91 per share, representing 8 percent growth over 2025. They expect long-term earnings to grow 7 percent to 9 percent annually through 2035, with most growth coming from added industrial load in Houston and Indiana.

Call summary: CenterPoint reported first quarter earnings per share of $0.56 and revenue of $3 billion, beating revenue expectations. The big story was dramatically increased load commitments in Houston, now at 12.2 gigawatts instead of 7.5 gigawatts, with 8 gigawatts expected energized by 2029. Management is also pursuing transformational growth in Indiana that could add $250 million in customer savings and about $1 billion in capital spending.

+ Revenue beat estimates by 4.0%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: Management did not provide specific forward guidance for full year or next quarter. Evan Greenberg stated confidence in continuing strong growth in operating earnings, double-digit growth in earnings per share, and tangible book value growth. He noted the company remains confident despite global uncertainty, particularly from Middle East geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on inflation and supply chains.

Call summary: Chubb had an excellent first quarter with total net premiums of 14.8 billion dollars, up 10.7 percent year over year. Core operating earnings reached 2.7 billion dollars or 6.82 dollars per share, well above the prior year quarter which was hurt by California wildfires. The company delivered a P&C combined ratio of 84 percent and grew tangible book value per share by 21.5 percent. Management highlighted strong international retail growth of over 15 percent, North America personal lines growth of 8.3 percent, and challenging property pricing conditions in shared and layered business where they strategically reduced exposure. Evan Greenberg noted that soft property pricing in certain markets is being driven by excessive capital chasing finite business, particularly through volume-incentive MGAs and alternative capital seeking returns, creating what he called dumb pricing.

+ Revenue beat estimates by 22.6%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: Management reaffirmed their target of 10 to 11 percent return on equity for the full year 2026. They expect net interest income to grow 5 to 6 percent, and said they will share more detail on capital plans and buybacks at an investor meeting in May.

Call summary: Citigroup reported strong first quarter results with 14 percent revenue growth, reaching $44.1 billion, and earnings per share of $3.06 well above the $2.64 consensus. Services business revenues jumped 17 percent and Markets surpassed $7 billion in quarterly revenues for the first time in ten years, with equities up nearly 40 percent. Management stressed the bank is only pursuing organic growth and has no interest in acquisitions, and said 90 percent of their regulatory transformation work is now complete or near completion.

+ EPS beat estimates by 13.3%; Revenue beat estimates by 83.8%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: Chime raised full year guidance to $2.66 billion to $2.69 billion revenue, up 22 percent to 23 percent. They expect $416 million to $431 million adjusted EBITDA with 16 percent margin. In Q2, they guide $633 million to $643 million revenue with 20 percent to 22 percent growth.

Call summary: Chime grew active members to 10.2 million, adding nearly 700,000 in Q1. Revenue hit $647 million, up 25 percent year over year, and they turned GAAP profitable with $53 million net income. The company launched Chime Prime, a premium tier with 5 percent cash back, and expects it to drive higher spending and retention. Transaction profit jumped 41 percent to $491 million, driven by strong member growth, higher ARPAM to $263, and improved margins to 76 percent from improved credit mix and MyPay scaling.

+ EPS beat estimates by 276.8%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: The company lowered production guidance for the full year by 35 thousand barrels per day because of the Middle East conflict taking Qatar offline. Operating costs stay at 10.2 billion dollars, down 400 million from last year. Capital spending goes up slightly to 12 to 12.5 billion dollars to add Permian drilling and maintain efficiency. The company expects free cash flow to be up significantly from higher oil and liquefied natural gas prices since it is not hedged.

Call summary: ConocoPhillips delivered strong first quarter results with 1.89 dollars of earnings per share and 5.4 billion dollars of free cash flow, beating expectations. The company returned 2 billion dollars to shareholders. Willow construction in Alaska is 50 percent complete with key milestones achieved. The Middle East conflict has taken about 10 million barrels per day of global production offline, with Qatar being their main impact at about 80 thousand barrels per day. The company remains committed to its long-term strategy and is adding modest Permian activity to maintain operational efficiency.

+ EPS beat estimates by 13.2%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: The company withdrew its full-year guidance due to uncertainty around tariffs and the U.S. consumer. For the next quarter, it expects revenue between $1.38 billion and $1.42 billion with earnings per share between $1.50 and $1.55. HOKA should grow about 10 percent and UGG at least mid-single digits.

Call summary: Deckers delivered a strong first quarter with revenue of $965 million, up 17 percent, driven by HOKA hitting a record $653 million and UGG at $265 million. Both brands grew faster internationally, with international revenue surging 50 percent. The company raised prices on July 1 and made product improvements, but withdrew full-year guidance citing tariff uncertainty and unpredictable U.S. consumer behavior ahead.

+ EPS beat estimates by 13.4%; Revenue beat estimates by 7.3%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: AppLovin guided for 1.915 to 1.945 billion dollars in second-quarter revenue, up 52 to 55 percent year over year. They expect adjusted EBITDA margin around 84 to 85 percent. Management said the consumer vertical is accelerating fast and the June platform launch to the public will unlock much larger growth.

Call summary: AppLovin delivered 1.84 billion dollars in revenue, up 59 percent year over year, and beat guidance again. The gaming business remains strong while the consumer vertical is growing faster, with March spending 25 percent higher than January and April setting a record month. Management is excited about opening the platform to the public in June and seeing new game developers adopt ad monetization alongside in-app purchases.

+ EPS beat estimates by 3.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 3.3%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: Ball expects to deliver 10 percent or higher comparable earnings per share growth for the full year 2026. The company guides for greater than 900 million dollars in free cash flow and plans to return 800 million dollars to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. In North America, volumes should grow at the low end of the 1 to 3 percent range. EMEA volumes are expected to grow above 3 to 5 percent due to the Benepack acquisition. South America should see 4 to 6 percent growth.

Call summary: Ball delivered a strong first quarter with 3.6 billion dollars in revenue, beating consensus by 175 million dollars, and earnings per share of 94 cents, beating expectations by 9 cents. Global beverage can volumes grew about 1 percent, and the company achieved 10 percent operating earnings growth by executing on cost discipline and passing aluminum costs through to customers. Management highlighted that the aluminum can is winning share in all regions and stressed the importance of profit per can as a key metric going forward.

+ EPS beat estimates by 8.8%; Revenue beat estimates by 5.1%

B Solid report. Results were generally better than expected, but the forward outlook did not materially change.

Guidance: Crocs now expects full year revenue between 1.465 and 1.485 billion dollars, slightly above prior expectations. The company raised earnings per share guidance to 13.20 to 13.75 dollars for the year. For the second quarter, Crocs expects revenue to be down slightly, with earnings per share of 4.15 to 4.35 dollars.

Call summary: Crocs delivered a better than expected first quarter with 921 million dollars in revenue, aided by strong direct to consumer growth across both brands and new product launches like the LEGO brick clog and ballet flats. The Crocs brand declined 2 percent overall but DTC grew 11 percent as consumers embraced newness, while HEYDUDE brand dropped 13 percent but its DTC channel grew 8 percent. Management is confident in international expansion and returning both brands to growth in the second half despite headwinds from Middle East conflict and elevated shipping costs.

+ EPS beat estimates by 5.8%