Earnings Drift Grades: stocks graded on post-earnings drift

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Conagra reaffirmed its full year targets of 1.7 to 1.85 dollars per share and flat to 1 percent sales growth. The company expects low 7 percent inflation for the year, slightly higher than the original 7 percent forecast, but productivity gains should offset most of it.

Call summary: The first quarter showed recovery in frozen meals and vegetables as supply chain issues cleared, with 44 percent of the portfolio holding or gaining volume share. Revenue came in flat year over year at 2.8 billion dollars. However, the company faces ongoing weak consumer sentiment and higher protein and tariff costs, which it expects to persist through the year. The company cut net debt by over 400 million dollars through divestitures.

− EPS missed estimates by 3.6%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Aon reaffirmed its full year target for mid-single-digit or better organic revenue growth and 70 to 80 basis points of operating margin expansion. The company expects continued momentum from new business wins, revenue-generating hires, and growing demand in data center and workforce solutions throughout 2026.

Call summary: Aon delivered strong first quarter results with 5 percent organic revenue growth and 14 percent adjusted earnings per share growth on slightly lower reported revenue of 5.03 billion dollars. Management highlighted broad-based strength in Commercial Risk, which grew 7 percent for the fourth consecutive quarter above 6 percent, driven by new hires in construction and data centers, plus strong retention in mid-90s. The company emphasized that artificial intelligence and advanced analytics are now driving both revenue gains and margin expansion through tools like Broker Copilot and Claims Copilot, with plans to invest 1.3 billion dollars in talent and technology through 2026.

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: The company reaffirmed its full year 2026 FFO guidance at $6.40 per share but lowered the fourth quarter guidance to a midpoint of $1.45 from $1.50, primarily due to reduced capitalized interest expectations. Management expects second quarter leasing around 900,000 square feet and dispositions of $2.9 billion weighted to August. The company intends to improve occupancy and reduce capital needs through asset sales and joint ventures.

Call summary: Alexandria faced a tough first quarter with leasing volume down to 647,000 square feet, driven by zero public biotech leases and 657,000 square feet of key expirations that went vacant. Occupancy fell to 87.7 percent from 91 percent in the prior quarter. Management highlighted strong execution in their three largest markets where they captured twice their market share, but acknowledged pressure from FDA uncertainty, NIH leadership challenges, and tight public capital markets. The company remains focused on its path forward including balance sheet strength, cost reduction, and substantial asset dispositions.

+ EPS beat estimates by 1459.0%

− Revenue missed estimates by 2.8%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: BXP raised its full-year 2026 FFO guidance to $6.90 to $7.04 per share, up one penny at the midpoint. The company expects to end 2026 at around 89 percent occupancy, up from 87.4 percent now, and plans to sell about $400 million more of non-core assets this year. Strong leasing demand, especially from artificial intelligence companies in San Francisco and New York, is driving the occupancy improvements.

Call summary: BXP reported first-quarter FFO of $1.59 per share, beating expectations by one penny, with revenue of $872 million beating consensus by about $19 million. The company completed 1.14 million square feet of leasing in the quarter, with occupancy rising to 87.4 percent. Artificial intelligence companies are driving strong demand in San Francisco, New York, and other gateway markets, and BXP has already sold $1.2 billion of non-core assets toward its $1.9 billion goal, including a $430 million sale of the Marriott headquarters building in Bethesda.

+ EPS beat estimates by 89.1%; Revenue beat estimates by 2.3%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Criteo lowered full year contribution outlook to decline low single digits at constant currency. They expect Q2 contribution of $260 million to $264 million, down 9 to 11 percent year over year. The company faces macro headwinds in travel and retail, plus reduced budgets from large U.S. clients. However, retail media is expected to return to growth in Q4 2026.

Call summary: Criteo reported $424 million revenue and $250 million contribution ex-TAC in Q1, beating consensus on the top line but missing earnings at $0.49 versus $0.57 expected. Media spend surpassed $1 billion for the first time. The company is advancing Agentic AI with over 1,000 ChatGPT-integrated brands now live. However, macro softness in Europe travel and discretionary retail, plus reduced spend from certain large U.S. Performance Media clients, forced management to cut 2026 guidance. The underlying Retail Media business remains strong with 24 percent contribution growth when excluding client scope impacts.

+ EPS beat estimates by 26.6%; Revenue beat estimates by 67.8%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: DoorDash reaffirmed its full year outlook for EBITDA margins to be slightly higher than 2025, excluding restaurant unit economics. Management said they expect the second half EBITDA to be higher than the first half, with similar margins to what was planned at the start of the year. The company noted a 50 million dollar gas rewards program impact in the quarter and said they may extend it, but plan to offset it with other cost moves.

Call summary: Q1 revenue came in at 4.04 billion dollars, missing the 4.23 billion dollar consensus by about 190 million dollars, though EPS beat at 42 cents versus 38 cents expected. Management credited monthly active users hitting record highs, subscription engagement accelerating, and strong international momentum, especially at Deliveroo and Bolt. CEO Tony Xu emphasized the company is building end-to-end shopping experiences with AI, expanded Dasher Fulfillment Services for grocery accuracy, and grew advertising to record levels. New verticals like grocery are trending toward gross profit breakeven in the second half with improving unit economics as cohorts grow their basket sizes over time.

+ EPS beat estimates by 13.0%

− Revenue missed estimates by 4.5%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: DTE reaffirmed its 6 to 8 percent operating earnings per share growth for 2026, with confidence in reaching the high end through RNG tax credits. The company expects to achieve this growth through customer-focused utility investments and data center load growth. Google data center contract awaits Michigan PSC approval by September, which could provide upside beyond current guidance. The company aims to potentially pause electric rate case filings after current case if Oracle ramps on schedule and regulatory mechanisms are approved.

Call summary: DTE Energy had a strong first quarter with operating earnings of $1.95 per share, beating expectations on revenue by $789 million, though slightly missing on EPS. The company highlighted impressive storm response and reliability improvements over past three years, restoring 99 percent of customers within 48 hours during a severe March storm with 70 mile per hour winds. Management emphasized that Oracle data center is under construction with load ramping beginning by year-end 2026, and Google contract filed with regulators expecting approval by September, with potential to drive roughly $5 billion in additional capital investment through 2032.

+ Revenue beat estimates by 18.1%

− EPS missed estimates by 3.9%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Equifax reaffirmed its full year 2026 guidance of about $6.745 billion in revenue and $8.54 in earnings per share despite strong first quarter results. Management kept guidance steady because of economic uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict and interest rate volatility, which pressured mortgage volumes in March and April. They still expect mortgage revenue to grow over 20 percent for the full year and diversified markets to grow in the high single digits.

Call summary: Equifax had a strong first quarter with revenue of $1.649 billion up 14 percent and earnings per share of $1.86 up 22 percent, both ahead of expectations. The big driver was U.S. mortgage revenue which jumped 38 percent, boosted by new Work Number Indicator products and strong mortgage activity in February before interest rates rose. Management is excited about their artificial intelligence driven products and record numbers of pending patents, but they are holding full year guidance steady due to concerns about the Iran conflict and rising interest rates dampening mortgage demand over the rest of the year.

+ EPS beat estimates by 8.3%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Autodesk raised its full year sales guidance to $7.025 billion to $7.075 billion, up from prior expectations. The company also raised billings guidance to $7.355 billion to $7.445 billion and increased full year free cash flow guidance to $2.2 billion to $2.275 billion. Management expects operating margins to expand to 41 percent by fiscal 2029.

Call summary: Autodesk delivered a strong quarter with revenue of $1.934 billion, beating the Street consensus of $1.931 billion, though non-GAAP EPS of $2.35 missed expectations of $2.84. The company highlighted sustained momentum in construction, architecture, engineering and operations, driven by data center and infrastructure investments. Management noted that AECO and Make segments continue to drive growth, while the new transaction model transition is moving smoothly and contributing about $105 million to revenue. The company raised full year guidance and reaffirmed confidence in long-term margin expansion.

+ EPS beat estimates by 3.1%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: PowerFleet expects to reach double-digit services growth by the end of fiscal 2026. Management raised the low end of guidance and projects an additional 30 million dollars in net debt reduction in the second half of the year, driven by top-line growth and improved working capital.

Call summary: PowerFleet delivered strong first-quarter results with services revenue jumping 53 percent year over year to 86.5 million dollars, now making up 83 percent of total revenue. The company won significant new customers including MTN Business across Africa and SIXT Rental in Mexico, and launched a new AI safety module that automatically detects driver fatigue and unsafe behavior. Management remains confident in reaching 85 percent-plus SaaS revenue mix and expects further margin expansion as the business scales its Unity platform.

− Revenue missed estimates by 3.0%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Company withdrew all full-year guidance and declined to provide forward targets. Management said they will focus internally on funding an AI transformation with approximately 50 million dollars per year in cash flow, but are not committing to specific revenue or profit numbers. They expect to launch the new platform in about 12 months and anticipate material revenue growth in 2027, though without specific targets.

Call summary: Angi reported Q1 revenue of 238 million dollars, missing consensus by about 3 percent, but beat earnings per share with a loss of 22 cents versus an expected loss of 41 cents. The company is shifting strategy away from incremental improvements on legacy technology toward building a new AI native platform and AI agents for Pros, a move management calls transformational. Strong January and February sales weakened in March due to macro factors, but the company remains focused on doubling Pro win rates and expanding into larger contractors and new software markets rather than chasing quarterly targets.

+ EPS beat estimates by 19.1%

− Revenue missed estimates by 3.0%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: BlackLine raised full year revenue guidance to $765 to $769 million and expects earnings between $2.42 and $2.53 per share. For next quarter, they guide for $186 to $188 million in revenue. The company is investing heavily in AI capabilities and expects platform pricing to reach 25 percent of revenue by year end.

Call summary: BlackLine delivered $183 million in revenue, up 10 percent, with strong adoption of their Studio360 platform now at 13 percent of eligible billing. Their AI agents, particularly Verity Prepare for reconciliations and new Verity Collect for payments, are seeing exceptional customer interest and usage, with one customer cutting reconciliation time from 3 hours to 10 minutes. The company is managing through geopolitical headwinds in Europe and lower mid-market churn but sees momentum in enterprise deals and the SAP partnership, with strategic products now 37 percent of sales.

+ EPS beat estimates by 21.2%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Capital One reaffirmed that earnings power after the Discover deal integration would match expectations from when the deal was announced, including Brex and travel business. They expect expense synergies to come mostly in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 as technology conversions complete. The company plans to continue investing heavily in growth opportunities including Brex, travel, and converting Discover customers onto Capital One platforms.

Call summary: Capital One reported stronger revenue than expected at $19.3 billion, driven by the Discover acquisition, though earnings per share of $4.42 missed the $4.61 consensus slightly. Credit quality remained strong with card charge-offs improving 109 basis points year-over-year to 5.1 percent and auto delinquencies improving 72 basis points. The company closed the Brex acquisition for about $4.5 billion in April and is investing to grow these new businesses while completing the Discover technology integration.

+ Revenue beat estimates by 24.5%

− EPS missed estimates by 3.9%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Cognizant reaffirmed full year revenue guidance of 4 to 6.5 percent growth and raised adjusted operating margin guidance to 16 to 16.2 percent. The company expects second quarter revenue growth of 3.2 to 4.7 percent. Management plans to invest most of the $200 million to $300 million in Project LEAP savings back into AI capabilities and growth while still expanding margins.

Call summary: Cognizant delivered solid first quarter results with revenue of $5.4 billion growing 3.9 percent year over year, led by strong Financial Services growth above 10 percent and large deal wins in North America. The company signed 7 deals above $100 million including one mega deal worth over $500 million, with bookings growth reaching 21 percent, the strongest in recent history. Management emphasized the shift toward becoming an AI builder through three vectors: AI-led productivity using 40 percent AI-assisted code, industrializing AI across platforms, and identifying enterprise opportunities through agentic solutions.

+ EPS beat estimates by 3.0%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Management raised full year revenue guidance to $837 million to $839 million, up 5 percent year over year. Third quarter is expected to show slight revenue dip to $209 million to $210 million as company cleans up troubled customer accounts. Full year non-GAAP operating income raised to $131 million to $133 million.

Call summary: Sprinklr reported $212 million in total revenue, up 8 percent year over year, but missed street consensus of $218 million. CEO Rory Read emphasized the company is in phase two of a multi-year transformation, with 149 customers now generating over $1 million in annual revenue. Project BearHug, which engages the top 700 customers representing 80 to 90 percent of revenue, is showing positive early results. The company is investing heavily in artificial intelligence capabilities and regional implementation resources, which is driving higher cloud hosting costs and pressuring gross margins down 2 to 3 points in the second half.

+ EPS beat estimates by 14.6%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: CONMED raised its outlook for organic growth in 2026 to 5.0 to 6.5 percent from 4.5 to 6.0 percent, now expecting total revenue between $1.35 billion and $1.375 billion. The company adjusted for lower GI product sales after completing two divestiture deals faster than expected, but confidence in core business segments like orthopedics, smoke evacuation and AirSeal insufflation supports the higher growth guidance. Interest expense from debt refinancing will increase by at least $0.10 per share, but the company kept adjusted earnings guidance at $4.30 to $4.45 for the full year.

Call summary: CONMED's first quarter revenue reached $317 million, down 1.3 percent year over year but up 2.1 percent organically after excluding the gastroenterology exit. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.89, down 6.3 percent from last year primarily because of the GI business exit and higher spending on growth initiatives. The company highlighted strong momentum in orthopedics with 4.5 percent constant currency growth, successful launches in smoke evacuation and BioBrace soft tissue repair, and improving supply chain performance that is allowing the sales team to grow accounts again.

+ EPS beat estimates by 6.5%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Management reaffirmed full year earnings guidance of about $0.90 per share but provided no new revenue or near-term sales forecast. They expect Snacks to decline about 4 percent in the second half of the year, with Fresh Bakery challenges to persist into Q3 before improving in Q4. Meals and Beverages is expected to see flat to down 1 percent consumption in the back half after strong Q2 driven by holiday demand and RAO'S growth.

Call summary: Campbell beat EPS by one penny but missed revenue by $39 million in the quarter. The big problem is Snacks, where the segment margin dropped to 7 percent, down 390 basis points, due to a 6 percent sales decline and deleverage in manufacturing and distribution from Fresh Bakery execution failures that began before the winter storm. RAO'S in Meals and Beverages grew 14.5 percent, driving strong consumption in Q2, but that growth is not expected to sustain. Management is shifting marketing dollars to promotional pricing on chips and pretzels to compete, investing $100 million in overhead cuts, and suspending share buybacks to focus on debt reduction as leverage sits above four times.

+ EPS beat estimates by 3.5%

D- Very weak report. The release materially worsened the forward outlook.

Guidance: Ecolab reaffirmed full year earnings growth of 12 to 15 percent, excluding the CoolIT acquisition impact. Second quarter will be a transition quarter with high single digit commodity cost increases, but the company expects to fully offset those costs by the end of the second quarter through pricing and volume growth. The company expects second half organic sales growth of 6 to 7 percent.

Call summary: The company delivered strong first quarter results with 4 percent organic sales growth and 13 percent adjusted EPS growth, beating expectations. Management highlighted accelerating momentum in growth engines, particularly Global High Tech growing over 20 percent and Life Sciences accelerating to 11 percent growth. To address high single digit commodity inflation tied to Middle East energy costs, management implemented an energy surcharge starting April 1, which it expects to fully offset costs by late second quarter.